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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined by 8.1 points in December to 104.7 (1985=100).
The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — fell 1.2 points to 140.2.
The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — tumbled 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
The cutoff date for preliminary results was Dec. 16, 2024.
“The recent rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained in December as the Index dropped back to the middle of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. “While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop.
Peterson added, “Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.”
Among age groups, December’s fall in confidence was led by consumers over 35 years old; consumers under 35 became more confident.
Among income groups, the decline was concentrated in consumers with household earnings between $25K and $100K, while consumers at the bottom and top of the income range reported only limited changes in confidence.
On a six-month moving average basis, consumers aged under 35 and those earning over $100K remained the most confident.
On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were down slightly in December, potentially reflecting rising mortgage rates despite Fed rate cuts.
Purchasing plans for autos continued to increase, and more consumers planned to buy big-ticket items over the next six months than not.
However, consumer buying plans for most appliances and electronics were still down on a six-month moving average basis.
Separately, consumers continued to express intentions to purchase additional services ahead, especially dining out and streaming.
Travelling and going to the movies were somewhat lower on the spending list in December, while personal care and health care moved up.
Consistent with the findings on travel spending intentions, vacation plans were down for both domestic and international travel.
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions eroded somewhat in December.
* 19.1 percent of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 21.6 percent in November.
* 16.7 percent said business conditions were “bad,” up from 15.3 percent.
Consumers’ appraisals of the labor market improved in December.
*37.0 percent of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 33.6 percent in November.
*14.8 percent of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 15.2 percent.
